On the 15th, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of National Economic Comprehensive Statistics, Fu Linghui, stated that in the second half of the year, with the continuous manifestation of the policy effects of stable-scale and optimized-structure foreign trade, China’s exports are expected to maintain basic stability, and the trade surplus in goods will continue to be positive.
During the press conference held on the 15th of August to discuss the economic performance of July 2023, a journalist asked, “Despite the decrease in exports, China’s trade surplus remains strong. Could you please explain why? Additionally, what is the trend for the entire export situation in the coming months of this year?”
Fu Linghui pointed out that this year, the global economic growth has been generally weak, global trade and investment have slowed down, and the contraction of external demand has increasingly constrained China’s foreign trade growth. Faced with these challenges, China has vigorously promoted stable-scale and optimized-structure foreign trade policies, and the resilience of foreign trade has continued to show. The overall scale of goods imports and exports has remained stable, and the trade surplus has remained at a relatively high level. In the first seven months, China’s goods trade surplus expanded by 10.3% year-on-year. The main reasons for China’s trade surplus are:
First, China has strong production and supply capabilities, resulting in a larger export scale than imports. China’s industrial system is complete, the supporting industries are relatively well-developed, and the resilience of the industrial and supply chains is strong, providing international market competitiveness for exported goods. Based on the situation from this year so far, China’s share in the international market for exports has remained relatively stable, while domestic market demand is still in the process of recovery, leading to limited growth in imports. In the first seven months, China’s exports increased by 1.5% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 1.1%, providing some support for the trade surplus.
Second, the decrease in import prices is greater than that of export prices, which also contributes to the trade surplus. This year, international commodity prices have clearly declined, and as China’s imports of energy and raw materials account for a large proportion, there has been a noticeable downward pull on import prices. In June, the import price index decreased by 8.5% year-on-year for the fourth consecutive month, with a larger decrease than the export price index. In the first seven months, China’s import prices for crude oil, coal, and iron ore decreased by 16.6%, 19.7%, and 5.1% respectively, year-on-year. While export prices have declined, the decrease has been smaller than that of import prices, aiding in the formation of a trade surplus.
Fu Linghui believes that despite facing difficulties in the next stage, China’s complete industrial system and ample supply capacity, along with strong foreign trade resilience, are apparent characteristics. In the second half of the year, with the continuous manifestation of the policy effects of stable-scale and optimized-structure foreign trade, China’s exports are expected to maintain basic stability, and the trade surplus in goods will continue to be positive. With the support of various policies aimed at stabilizing foreign trade, the overall scale of foreign trade imports and exports is expected to remain stable.
Firstly, exports from dynamic private enterprises are growing rapidly. From January to July, exports from private enterprises increased by 6.7% year-on-year, significantly faster than the overall growth rate of imports and exports, accounting for 52.9% of the total foreign trade value. Private enterprises have strong capabilities in expanding foreign trade, which is conducive to stable growth in foreign trade.
Secondly, the diversification of trading partners continues to progress. While stabilizing trade with traditional trading partners, China actively expands trade with new partners, promotes the construction of the “Belt and Road,” accelerates the establishment of free trade zones, and promotes the development of foreign trade. In the first seven months, China’s imports and exports with countries along the “Belt and Road” increased by 7.4% year-on-year, faster than the overall growth rate of imports and exports.
Lastly, new growth drivers in foreign trade continue to emerge. New forms of foreign trade are continuously expanding, enhancing their impact, and the improvement of the competitiveness of new products in the market has also contributed to the growth of foreign trade. Driven by the growth of exports of new energy vehicles, China’s automobile exports increased by 118.5% year-on-year from January to July.
